Eurozone economic restructuring will lead to higher unemployment
Financial Times, September 12th, 2014
Martin Wolf, in his clear-eyed analysis of the difficulties facing the Eurozone (Europe has to do whatever it takes, today’s FT), seems to overlook two problems.
The first is that the public debt of the larger Eurozone members, France, Italy and Spain, now approaches or exceeds the size of their economies. Increasing their fiscal deficits, as Mr. Wolf recommends, to encourage a return to growth through a hoped-for boost to demand will make this dire situation even worse. Indeed France, with public debt of 94% of GDP in 2013 has already announced an increased deficit of 4.4% of GDP for 2014.
The second problem is that the initial result of any serious economic restructuring, regularly called for, mantra-like, by Germany, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and, most recently in your pages, Lawrence Summers, is likely to be a significant further increase in unemployment.